Catalent (USA Stocks:CTLT) is to drop even more in December

Every cloud has a silver lining, and the current situation with Catalent Inc. (NYSE: CTLT) seems to be no exception. Despite the unfavorable news, there appears to be potential investment opportunities. The pharmaceutical company's typical day price stands at $38.72, a considerable drop from its 52-week high of $74.49. However, with a Naive Expected Forecast Value of $36.78, there's a possible upside price of $39.87. Analysts have given an overall consensus of 'Hold' with 2 buys, 3 strong buys, and 1 sell. With a short ratio of 3.73 and shares short at 10.1M, there's a potential for a short squeeze. Furthermore, the company's Accumulation Distribution of 650.4K suggests a positive trend in the stock's liquidity. While the EPS estimate for the current and next quarter stands at $0.1 and $0.08 respectively, the company's valuation market value of $39.56 and valuation hype value of $35.49 present a promising outlook. Thus, despite the clouds, Catalent may offer a silver lining for discerning investors. Currently, Catalent's working capital is relatively stable compared to the previous year. The interest coverage is projected to increase to 5.96 in 2023, while the invested capital is expected to slightly decrease to just above $8.3 billion in the same year. The primary purpose of this brief analysis is to evaluate Catalent as an investment opportunity for December. We will delve into why recent price movements of Catalent's stock suggest a potential rebound in December.
Published over two weeks ago
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Reviewed by Vlad Skutelnik

Catalent is currently UNDERVALUED, trading at $41.79 per share, with modest growth projections on the horizon. Over 100.0% of Catalent's shares are held by institutions, including insurance companies. The institutional ownership of Catalent refers to the proportion of Catalent's equity owned by mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, investment firms, foundations, and other large entities that manage funds on behalf of others. For our latest analysis of Catalent, including its current ownership structure, please check out our most recent report.

Main Takeaways

Despite the recent unfavorable news surrounding Catalent, there are potential investment opportunities that savvy investors may want to consider. The company's EPS estimate for the next year is 1.14, indicating a potential for growth. Furthermore, the Wall Street target price for Catalent is 50.64, which is significantly higher than the current day's typical price of 38.72. This suggests that the market may be undervaluing the stock, providing an opportunity for investors to buy in at a lower price. However, investors should also consider the company's mean deviation of 1.97, which indicates a higher level of risk. Despite this, the potential for significant returns may outweigh the risks for some investors.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalent. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Predictive Modules for Catalent

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Catalent's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Catalent in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Catalent. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Catalent's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Catalent's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Catalent.

How important is Catalent's Liquidity

Catalent financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Catalent ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Catalent financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Catalent's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Catalent's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Catalent's total debt and its cash.

Catalent Gross Profit

Catalent Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Catalent previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Catalent Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Catalent's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

An Additional Perspective On Catalent

The newest Catalent price drop could raise concerns from private investors as the firm is trading at a share price of 39.56 on 5,799,644 in volume. The company executives were unable to exploit market volatilities in October. However, diversifying your overall positions with Catalent can protect your principal portfolio during market swings. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 3.09. The above-average risk is mostly attributed to market volatility and speculations regarding some of the upcoming earning calls from Catalent partners.

Margin Breakdown

Operating Margin12.75
EBITDA Margin0.26
Gross Margin0.39
Profit Margin0.0971
Every cloud has a silver lining, and Catalent's recent unfavorable news may just be the cloud investors have been waiting for.
Despite a day typical price of $38.72, well below the 52-week high of $74.49, Catalent's fundamentals remain strong with a net asset of $10.78 billion and a healthy EBITDA of $79 million. The company's cash flow from operations stands at $261 million, indicating a robust financial position. However, the market has reacted negatively to the news, pushing the stock's price below its 50-day moving average of $43.1006 and 200-day moving average of $49.3224. This has resulted in a short percent of 0.0627, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors. But with Wall Street's target price at $50.64, there is a potential upside of 4.75. Given Catalent's strong fundamentals and the potential for price recovery, this could be an opportune time for investors to consider this healthcare stock, which boasts a market capitalization of $5.97 billion. .

Will Catalent newest gain continue?

Catalent's latest skewness indicator has recently decreased to -1.07, indicating a potential for price appreciation. This negative skewness signifies a distribution with a tail on the left side, which, in the context of stock prices, could suggest a higher likelihood of substantial gains. While this is not a certainty, it does hint that the recent gains Catalent has been enjoying may persist. Investors should closely monitor the stock for any signs of a reversal, but for now, the skewness indicator appears to support the prospect of further price appreciation. Catalent displays very low volatility with a skewness of -1.07 and a kurtosis of 6.22. However, we recommend investors to further examine Catalent's technical indicators to ensure that all market information is accessible and reliable. Understanding varying market volatility trends often assists investors in timing the market. Correctly utilizing volatility indicators allows traders to measure Catalent's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The heightened level of volatility that accompanies bear markets can directly affect Catalent's stock price while causing stress to investors as they witness their shares' value decrease.
This typically compels investors to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing different stocks as prices decline. In light of recent events, Catalent's perceived bad news may not be as detrimental as initially thought. The company's valuation real value stands at a solid 41.79, higher than both its possible downside price of 33.69 and its valuation hype value of 35.49. Furthermore, the analyst's target price estimated value is a promising 50.181, suggesting potential for growth. While the analyst overall consensus is a 'Hold' with 8 holds, 2 buys, and 1 sell, it's worth noting that there are 3 strong buys. As we approach the fiscal year end in June, investors should keep a close eye on Catalent's performance. The potential upside price of 39.87 and the highest estimated target price of 58 indicate room for significant returns. Despite the bad news, Catalent's future in the market remains promising. .

Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Aina Ster do not own shares of Catalent. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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