Air Industries Group (NYSE: AIRI), an Aerospace & Defense sector player, has shown a potential upside of 8.28%
, indicating that investors could see significant gains if the company's stock continues its upward trajectory. Despite a modest price change of $0.06, the stock's recent performance, with a price percent change of 2.06%
, suggests that AIRI may have the resilience to weather market volatility. However, with a total risk alpha of -0.31, investors should be cautious, as this indicates that the stock may not be providing adequate returns for its inherent risk compared to a risk-free benchmark. The stock's accumulation distribution of 1.84, coupled with a daily balance of power of 6
, suggests that there is a strong buying pressure that could propel the stock further, even in the face of market swings. Nevertheless, the value at risk figure of -7.81%
serves as a stark reminder of the potential downside, emphasizing the need for investors to consider the possibility of significant losses. Investors looking to capitalize on Air Industries Group's recent surge should weigh these factors carefully to maximize returns while navigating the inherent volatility of the stock market.
Air Industries Group currently has liabilities totaling $28.51 million, with a Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.6. This ratio is roughly average when compared to similar companies in the industry. The company maintains a current ratio of 1.74, which is within the standard range for its sector and suggests that it can cover its short-term obligations.
While debt can be a useful tool for Air Industries to leverage for growth, it also comes with risks. If the company is unable to meet its debt obligations, either through raising new capital or generating free cash flow, shareholders could potentially lose their entire investment. It is more common, however, for companies like Air Industries Group to issue additional shares at lower prices, resulting in the dilution of existing shareholders' equity. In such scenarios, debt can be a superior tool for investing in growth opportunities that offer high rates of return.
In terms of performance, Air Industries has a score of 2 out of 100. The company's Beta, a measure of market volatility, is 0.4462, which indicates potential diversification benefits within an investment portfolio. As market returns increase, Air Industries' returns are expected to increase by a smaller margin. Conversely, in a bear market, the company's losses are expected to be less severe.
While historical returns are important to consider, a realistic view of the company's current trend patterns is essential. Our approach to forecasting the future performance of any stock involves a comprehensive evaluation of the business, its past performance, and all available fundamental and technical indicators. By examining Air Industries Group's technical indicators, investors can assess whether the expected return of 0.19% is sustainable. Currently, Air Industries Group presents a risk of 5.02%.
Investors are advised to confirm Air Industries Group's downside variance and examine the relationship between the Treynor Ratio and Kurtosis to determine if the company will continue to follow its price patterns. These measures can provide insights into the stock's risk-adjusted performance and the distribution of its returns.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Air Industries or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Air Industries may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Air's beta indicator
, it measures the risk of Air Industries and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Air Industries fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis
How important is Air Industries's Liquidity
Air Industries financial leverage
refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Air Industries Group ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Air Industries financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Air Industries' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Air Industries' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown
between Air Industries's total debt and its cash.
Air Industries Gross Profit
Air Industries Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Air Industries previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Air Industries Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Air Industries' gross profit
and other fundamental indicators
for more details.
Air Industries Volatility Drivers
Air Industries unsystematic risk is unique to Air Industries Group and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Air Industries you can also buy Draganfly
. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the industrials sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Air Industries important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Air Industries income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details
about Air volatility.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
A Deeper Perspective
Air Industries reported the previous year's revenue of 53.24 M
. Net Loss for the year was (1.08 M
) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.45 M
| 2023 (projected)
In the world of investing, it's often said that fortune favors the bold, and Air Industries Group (NYSE: AIRI) may just exemplify this adage with its recent performance. Despite a high probability of bankruptcy at **48.72%** and a market fraught with volatility, AIRI's stock has shown resilience with a potential upside of 8.28. With a modest market capitalization of **$9.74M**, the company's shares are trading at a price to earnings ratio of 181.67X, which could be seen as steep by traditional valuation metrics.
However, with a target price of $5.5, there's a significant premium compared to its current median price of $2.97. Investors should note that the company's cash and equivalents stand at $930K, which provides a cash per share value of 0.29X, indicating liquidity that could be crucial in weathering market fluctuations. The company's debt to equity ratio is relatively low at 1.60%, suggesting that leverage is under control. While the aerospace and defense sector can be unpredictable, Air Industries Group's recent surge may be poised to overcome market volatility, especially considering the strong insider ownership of 38.67%, which often aligns with the long-term interests of shareholders. .
Will Air Industries growth be reasonable after the surge?
Air Industries Group (NYSEAMERICAN: AIRI), a company operating in the defense and aerospace sector, has recently demonstrated a mean deviation of 3.8, indicating a significant level of volatility in its stock price. Investors contemplating an investment in the stock following its recent price increase should consider this statistical measure carefully, as it points to considerable price swings. Although Air Industries may possess robust fundamentals
and potential for growth—especially given its association with the defense industry—the pronounced volatility, as suggested by the mean deviation, could mean that the stock's upward trajectory might encounter turbulence. Prudent investors are advised to scrutinize the underlying factors behind the stock's recent price activity, including any specific news related to the company or broader market dynamics, before determining whether Air Industries' growth is likely to be stable and enduring following the price surge. Air Industries Group is currently showing a higher-than-average semi-deviation for the given time horizon. We recommend that investors conduct a thorough investigation of Air Industries Group on an individual basis to ensure that their market timing
strategies and the technical indicators they plan to use align with their projections about Air Industries' future systematic risk. Understanding varying market volatility
trends is often key to timing the market effectively. Employing volatility indicators correctly allows traders to assess the risk associated with Air Industries' stock relative to market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends.
The increased volatility that typically accompanies bear markets can have a direct impact on Air Industries' stock price
, adding stress for investors as they observe a decline in the value of their shares. This scenario often compels investors to rebalance their portfolios by acquiring different stocks as prices drop. In conclusion, Air Industries Group's recent uptick of over 2 percent is a positive sign, but investors are likely more interested in the stock's future trajectory. With a current market valuation of **$2.97** and a naive expected forecast value of **$3.02**, the company is showing modest potential for growth. Analyst consensus points to a 'Buy' rating, with the sole analyst providing an estimated target price of **$5.50**, suggesting a significant possible upside of **$8.05**. While the downside risk is minimal at **$0.0297**, the fact that the fiscal year-end is in December allows for the full year's performance to be taken into account before making a final investment decision. Given these data points, AIRI presents an interesting opportunity for investors, particularly if the company can capitalize on its market position and deliver on the expectations set by analysts. .
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