Catalent Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 35.41

CTLT Stock  USD 57.98  0.16  0.28%   
Catalent's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Catalent. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Catalent based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Catalent over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-15 CALL at $57.5 is a CALL option contract on Catalent's common stock with a strick price of 57.5 expiring on 2024-03-15. The contract was last traded on 2024-02-16 at 15:43:17 for $1.45 and, as of today, has 24 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.55, and an ask price of $1.8. The implied volatility as of the 20th of February is 19.04. View All Catalent options

Closest to current price Catalent long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Catalent's future price is the expected price of Catalent instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Catalent performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Catalent Backtesting, Catalent Valuation, Catalent Correlation, Catalent Hype Analysis, Catalent Volatility, Catalent History as well as Catalent Performance.
For more information on how to buy Catalent Stock please use our How to Invest in Catalent guide.
  
At this time, Catalent's Price to Book Value is comparatively stable as compared to the past year. Price to Sales Ratio is likely to gain to 2.73 in 2024, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to drop (28.21) in 2024. Please specify Catalent's target price for which you would like Catalent odds to be computed.

Catalent Target Price Odds to finish below 35.41

The tendency of Catalent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 35.41  or more in 90 days
 57.98 90 days 35.41 
about 6.08
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Catalent to drop to $ 35.41  or more in 90 days from now is about 6.08 (This Catalent probability density function shows the probability of Catalent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Catalent price to stay between $ 35.41  and its current price of $57.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.62 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.87 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Catalent will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.5579, implying that it can generate a 0.56 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Catalent Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Catalent

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalent. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Catalent's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Catalent in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
54.4157.1059.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
52.8955.5858.27
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.0048.6058.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.1-0.06-0.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Catalent. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Catalent's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Catalent's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Catalent.

Catalent Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Catalent is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Catalent's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Catalent, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Catalent within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.56
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.87
σ
Overall volatility
6.91
Ir
Information ratio 0.24

Catalent Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Catalent for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Catalent can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.28 B. Net Loss for the year was (256 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.04 B.
Catalent has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from businesswire.com: CATALENT INVESTOR ALERT by the Former Attorney General of Louisiana Kahn Swick Foti, LLC Investigates Adequacy of Price and Process in Proposed Sale of Catalent, Inc. - CTLT

Catalent Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Catalent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Catalent's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Catalent's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding181 M
Cash And Short Term Investments280 M

Catalent Technical Analysis

Catalent's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Catalent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Catalent. In general, you should focus on analyzing Catalent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Catalent Predictive Forecast Models

Catalent's time-series forecasting models is one of many Catalent's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Catalent's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Catalent

Checking the ongoing alerts about Catalent for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Catalent help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.28 B. Net Loss for the year was (256 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.04 B.
Catalent has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from businesswire.com: CATALENT INVESTOR ALERT by the Former Attorney General of Louisiana Kahn Swick Foti, LLC Investigates Adequacy of Price and Process in Proposed Sale of Catalent, Inc. - CTLT
When determining whether Catalent is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Catalent Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Catalent Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Catalent Stock:
Check out Catalent Backtesting, Catalent Valuation, Catalent Correlation, Catalent Hype Analysis, Catalent Volatility, Catalent History as well as Catalent Performance.
For more information on how to buy Catalent Stock please use our How to Invest in Catalent guide.
You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for Catalent Stock analysis

When running Catalent's price analysis, check to measure Catalent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Catalent is operating at the current time. Most of Catalent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Catalent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Catalent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Catalent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Catalent's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Catalent. If investors know Catalent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Catalent listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.15)
Earnings Share
(7.18)
Revenue Per Share
22.623
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.10)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Catalent is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Catalent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Catalent's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Catalent's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Catalent's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Catalent's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Catalent's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Catalent is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Catalent's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.