Four Seasons Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FEDU Stock  USD 7.98  0.40  5.28%   
Four Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Four Seasons stock prices and determine the direction of Four Seasons Education's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Four Seasons historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Four Seasons naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Four Seasons Education systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Four Seasons fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Four Seasons to cross-verify your projections.
  
Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.05 in 2024. At this time, Four Seasons' Weighted Average Shares is comparatively stable as compared to the past year. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 18.9 M in 2024, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (219.8 K) in 2024.
Most investors in Four Seasons cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Four Seasons' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Four Seasons' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Four Seasons - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Four Seasons prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Four Seasons price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Four Seasons Education.

Four Seasons Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Four Seasons Education on the next trading day is expected to be 7.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Four Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Four Seasons' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Four Seasons Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Four SeasonsFour Seasons Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Four Seasons Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Four Seasons' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Four Seasons' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.11 and 10.69, respectively. We have considered Four Seasons' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.98
7.90
Expected Value
10.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Four Seasons stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Four Seasons stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0549
MADMean absolute deviation0.14
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0158
SAESum of the absolute errors8.2592
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Four Seasons observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Four Seasons Education observations.

Predictive Modules for Four Seasons

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Four Seasons Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Four Seasons' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Four Seasons in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.197.9810.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.317.109.89
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Four Seasons. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Four Seasons' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Four Seasons' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Four Seasons Education.

Other Forecasting Options for Four Seasons

For every potential investor in Four, whether a beginner or expert, Four Seasons' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Four Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Four. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Four Seasons' price trends.

Four Seasons Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Four Seasons stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Four Seasons could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Four Seasons by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
IhumanIncJianzhi Education17 Education TechnologyVasta PlatformLtdVitruLtdSkillful CraftsmanAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron CorpHome Depot
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Four Seasons Education Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Four Seasons' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Four Seasons' current price.

Four Seasons Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Four Seasons stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Four Seasons shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Four Seasons stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Four Seasons Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Four Seasons Risk Indicators

The analysis of Four Seasons' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Four Seasons' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Four Seasons stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Four Seasons Education is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Four Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Four Seasons Education Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Four Seasons Education Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Four Seasons to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Four Seasons Education information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Four Seasons' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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When running Four Seasons' price analysis, check to measure Four Seasons' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Four Seasons is operating at the current time. Most of Four Seasons' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Four Seasons' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Four Seasons' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Four Seasons to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Four Seasons' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Four Seasons. If investors know Four will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Four Seasons listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.83)
Earnings Share
(0.18)
Revenue Per Share
38.77
Quarterly Revenue Growth
3.475
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Four Seasons Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Four that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Four Seasons' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Four Seasons' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Four Seasons' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Four Seasons' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Four Seasons' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Four Seasons is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Four Seasons' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.