Catalent Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CTLT Stock  USD 57.98  0.16  0.28%   
Catalent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Catalent stock prices and determine the direction of Catalent's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Catalent historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Catalent naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Catalent systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Catalent fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Catalent to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Catalent Stock please use our How to Invest in Catalent guide.
  
At this time, Catalent's PPandE Turnover is comparatively stable as compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 5.13 in 2024, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 13.14 in 2024. . Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to gain to about 3.7 M in 2024, whereas Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 191.9 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-15 Catalent Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Catalent's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Catalent's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Catalent stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Catalent's open interest, investors have to compare it to Catalent's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Catalent is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Catalent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Catalent cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Catalent's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Catalent's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Catalent - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Catalent prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Catalent price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Catalent.

Catalent Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Catalent on the next trading day is expected to be 58.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94, mean absolute percentage error of 1.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.28.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Catalent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Catalent's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Catalent Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CatalentCatalent Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Catalent Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Catalent's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Catalent's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.70 and 61.04, respectively. We have considered Catalent's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
57.98
58.37
Expected Value
61.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Catalent stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Catalent stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0851
MADMean absolute deviation0.9369
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.02
SAESum of the absolute errors55.28
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Catalent observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Catalent observations.

Predictive Modules for Catalent

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalent. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Catalent's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Catalent in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
54.4157.1059.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
52.8955.5858.27
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.0048.6058.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.1-0.06-0.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Catalent. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Catalent's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Catalent's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Catalent.

Other Forecasting Options for Catalent

For every potential investor in Catalent, whether a beginner or expert, Catalent's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Catalent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Catalent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Catalent's price trends.

Catalent Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Catalent stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Catalent could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Catalent by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
MiMedx GroupMoleculin BiotechMadrigal PharmaceuticalsAgilent TechnologiesEquilliumMustang BioSeres TherapeuticsKineta Inc23Andme HoldingAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOne
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Catalent Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Catalent's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Catalent's current price.

Catalent Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Catalent stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Catalent shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Catalent stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Catalent entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Catalent Risk Indicators

The analysis of Catalent's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Catalent's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Catalent stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Catalent Investors Sentiment

The influence of Catalent's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Catalent. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Catalent's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Catalent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Catalent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Catalent. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Catalent's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Catalent's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Catalent's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Catalent.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Catalent in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Catalent's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Catalent options trading.

Pair Trading with Catalent

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Catalent position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Catalent will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Catalent Stock

  0.91VALN Valneva SE ADR Report 28th of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.89MEIP MEI Pharma Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.79YS YS Biopharma Report 22nd of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.78KA Kineta Inc Report 29th of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.68VAXX Vaxxinity Report 25th of March 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Catalent could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Catalent when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Catalent - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Catalent to buy it.
The correlation of Catalent is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Catalent moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Catalent moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Catalent can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Catalent is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Catalent Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Catalent Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Catalent Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Catalent to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Catalent Stock please use our How to Invest in Catalent guide.
You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Catalent Stock analysis

When running Catalent's price analysis, check to measure Catalent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Catalent is operating at the current time. Most of Catalent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Catalent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Catalent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Catalent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Funds Screener
Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Is Catalent's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Catalent. If investors know Catalent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Catalent listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.15)
Earnings Share
(7.18)
Revenue Per Share
22.623
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.10)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Catalent is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Catalent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Catalent's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Catalent's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Catalent's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Catalent's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Catalent's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Catalent is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Catalent's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.